Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The Tipping Point in Constitutional Democracies, 2011

The Equilibrium Point between Conservatism and Order and the Tendency toward European Secular Progressivism and Disorder/Entropy according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

In his ground breaking book, Entropy, A New World View, Jeremy Rifkin explains how disorder defined as Entropy according the Second Law of Thermodynamics is rapidly creating an unstable world. All ancient civilizations like Greece and Rome, due to economic, political and social disorder, can last only about 2,000 years before decaying into chaos. Our American Democracy is now past the tipping point since at the singing of the Declaration of Independence it was a pure Democracy.
Entropy, according to the second law of thermodynamics, is the measure of disorder in a system. The entropy of the universe as a whole tends to a maximum. All systems in the universe are subjects to the law: Our galaxy, the Earth and Ecosystem, all species, DNA, Man and is why we die when enough entropy is present in our cells and DNA that they can no longer function. It is the LAW and cannot be reversed only postponed in a state of near equilibrium between order and chaos. The entropy change of the Universe and all systems in it, including the Earth, are increasing overall with positive entropy but at the same time systems within systems can have islands of spontaneous negative entropy with an increase in order if there is enough work/energy put into the system. This process is the driving force in Organic Evolution of the species from simple molecules to more ordered highly complex organisms, deriving much of the energy required from sunlight and chemical energy.

Such was the creation of the United States out of a revolution when political and religious entropy was at a high point and remained in a near equilibrium between civil order and disorder for about 200 years. A dictatorial society, like Qaddafi's Libya, required minimum long term negative entropy to form, only short term brute force/military coup, but subsequently a huge input of energy/work to maintain. An anarchical society like the present day Libya, is the obvious result of maximum social entropy and civil disorder and will require high input of energy to maintain near equilibrium for many years due to the large number of tribes and political factions. (Ashley)
The rise of Isis after Obama destabilized the entire region by removing all American troops created total chaos and the Islamic terrorists have taken over and will continue to do so until the trend is reversed by more boots on the ground. In terms of Entropy the Middle East will continue to create chaos and disorder forever as long as Muslim Theology reins free and ignorance poverty is widespread.

Social entropy is a macro sociological systems theory. It is a measure of the natural decay within a social system. It can refer to the decomposition of social structure or of the disappearance of social distinctions. Much of the energy consumed by a social organization is spent to maintain its structure, counteracting social entropy, e.g., through legal institutions, education and even the promotion of television viewing. Anarchy is the maximum state of social entropy. Social Entropy implies the tendency of social networks and society in general to break down over time, moving from cooperation and advancement towards conflict and chaos.

Social Entropy and Energy Inputs: Modern Western complex societies remain organized by large inputs of energy/work to mitigate the natural progression of increasing entropy (disorder), according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, a fundamental law of physics. This effectively states that Entropy (disorder) increases with time. As the system becomes more complex, through access to energy, it becomes more susceptible to changes that may occur if one were to remove this source of energy. Take away the energy inputs (largely from fossil fuels) and organization corrodes, thus society becomes less cohesive and trends toward anarchy.

Our present administration is attempting to do exactly that by undermining oil/gas production in favor of more expensive green alternate unproven energy sources. This creates much more conflict between big business, energy companies, oil/gas producing states and rabid environmentalists hell bent on dismantling fossil fuel production at the expense of millions of jobs and thus fueling the culture war.

In the context of nations, increasing social entropy means that no nation or empire's political and cultural DNA lasts indefinitely. On this point history is clear and unequivocal: Ancient Greece and Rome, Persian Empire, Turkish Empire, British Empire, the Mongol Empire of the 13th century which was the world’s largest contiguous empire. None lasted and all eventually disintegrated. The American Empire is next in line; the how is in progress, it’s just a matter of when and how soon. It has rapidly progressed toward the max lately.
During the first 200 years of American History we maintained a traditional lifestyle/culture and a balance/equilibrium between political order and chaos/entropy. That order quickly eroded due to cultural and political upheavals in the 1960's occurring largely as a result of resistance to the Vietnamese War and cultural changes in lifestyle, politics, music, art and formation of the counterculture equivalent to the second American Revolution in my opinion.

About the time our original thirteen states adopted their new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinburgh had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier: “A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury."
In my opinion the 60s was the period when the equilibrium was tilted and the Tipping Point was created.
From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship or very large controlling government regulating the lives of us all..

The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years.
During those 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:
1. from bondage to spiritual faith; 1620-1776
2. from spiritual faith to great courage; 1776-Civil War
3. from courage to liberty; WWI-WWII
4. from liberty to abundance; 1940s-1950s
5. from abundance to complacency; 1960s-1970s
6. from complacency to apathy; 1980s-2000
7. from apathy to dependence; WE ARE HERE NOW - THE NANNY STATE
8. from dependence back into bondage” TOTAL GOVERNMENT CONTROL

a) The Arrow of Time Applied to all Systems in the Universe

low entropy to high entropy

b) Political Systems in Near Equilibrium before the 1960s

+ entropy

c) Equilibrium Imbalance after the 1960s, shift to Secular Progressivism

increasing entropy

d) Disequilibrium with Secular Progressivism entrenched with maximum entropy in the cultural and political system, much like modern Greece after 2,000 years due to massive entitlements/Socialism.

C -----------→ S-P (Atheism, Amorality, Nanny State)
+ maximum entropy

Where C = conservatism and S-P = Secular progressivism

According to Entropy Law, the arrow of time (a, above) always marches from order to disorder and consequently all civilizations and their cultures will crumble with time, the average stable lifetime being about 200 years before the elements of cultural decline begin to set in . For America it was the volatile 60's. Prior to that time there was a near equilibrium between the elements of civil order and disorder (b, above). Since the 60's, there has been a slow shift away from near equilibrium and stability to secular progressivism/socialism in certain regions, mostly the west and east coast.

More significant the shift was away from the mostly conservative traditional lifestyle we all enjoyed growing up in the 40's - 50's which did take quite a lot of energy to maintain, but since the vast majority of Americans were conservative traditionalists, both Democrat and Republican, there was little political conflict. Those upheavals of the 60's from the far left threw the near equilibrium state to a more disordered state (c, above) driven by the elements of progressivism never to return to near cultural equilibrium (b, above). No matter how much energy we traditionalists put in or even if progressivism fails miserably, the equilibrium will never shift to more order overall (d, above) because that would defy the Law of Entropy. Pockets of order may reestablish as new republics, as matter has with organic evolution and the evolution of species. Those new republics, however, will begin to decline the second the ink dries on their constitution! Modern Greece is the best example has having gone from the perfect Democracy to a state of complete anarchy by the people faced by losing their unrealistic sacred entitlements and vacation time. The rest of Europe, primarily the more wealthy capitalistic countries like Germany, are bailing them out. This cycle will repeat itself until all of Europe is socialistic and we may not be immune forever.

As someone said recently in a review of Bill O'Reilly's bestselling book, Culture Warrior:
"Think about it - Secular Progressivism reduces everything to matter, which is locked in the prison cell of thermodynamics and entropy." What he is saying I believe is that Secular Progressivism(S-P), what we Culture Warriors are continually fighting, reduces cultural institutions to a more random dynamic form like Helium gas in a balloon which follows the Entropy Law when released into the air never to return to a stable collection of atoms but scattered randomly all over in the Earth's atmosphere. The one world, no borders, utopian socialistic society is the dream of most S-Ps. Once Secular Progressivism rears its ugly head, the culture continually decays to cultural chaos/disorder never to return to its more stable earlier traditional nationalistic state, in our case dictated by the American Constitution. S-Ps generally believe the Constitution is outdated and should be completely rewritten, if not abolished, and what revisionist liberal judges continually strive to do and have been successful lately in landmark cases.

According to another blogger, Mencius Moldbug, on Blogspot in his Blog, Unqualified Reservations, he asserts that: "Progressivism is obviously entropic and it's enemy is order. Progressives instinctively despise formality, authority, and hierarchy."
Formality, authority, hierarchy and traditional values are all hallmarks of traditional American values and conservative thinking! I conceptualize a critical tipping point in a culture/nation as the equilibrium point between order and disorder. According to the second Law of Thermodynamics (Heat/Energy Laws), equilibrium can never be fully established because entropy/disorder is always increasing in a system and that is why we traditionalists must work harder to slow down cultural disorder in the form of Progressivism, anarchy, and Socialism. Anarchy groups have been increasing lately disguised as environmental Green Groups and now the Occupy Wall Street group among college students, an alarming trend much like the sixties, and we now have a progressive administration so we traditionalists must input more energy/work/money just to maintain a state of near equilibrium as possible which fluctuates with time. According to the Entropy Law, it doesn't take much change to push to increased disorder - the economic meltdown in 2008-2009 as a perfect example.

Political scientists have long used entropy considerations:
In 2001, American social scientist Carl Boggs used the term political entropy as a metaphor for what he describes as, “the deep sense of political malaise that gripped American society in the 1990s—a malaise deeply rooted in historical processes that have given rise to unprecedented levels of popular distrust, hostility, and alienation toward the political system, politicians, and indeed ‘politics’ in general”, signified by a less than 25 percent public confidence in the federal government during this period. He goes on to state: “measured by virtually any set of criteria, the political system is in a (potentially terminal) state of entropy, out of touch with the needs and aspirations of the vast majority of people; citizenship—its rights and obligations—has decayed beyond recognition.” See: Political Entropy and American Decline, Cerny, P.G., Millennium - Journal of International Studies.1989; 18: 47-63.

Many economists use entropy considerations in their analyses:

One of the most rational voices on the right, Dr. Charles Krauthammer, sees American decline and the end of American ascendancy as the result of political choices we have made. These days it won't take much to push way past the political and economic tipping point to more chaos - another large terrorist attack, a deeper depression, another war, another filibuster proof Democratic majority in the senate or another economic meltdown. We were close to that point in 2009 but survived because huge amounts of money was required to restore balance consequently the order before the crash will never be restored due to considerable financial chaos and loss of jobs among the citizens which will never be restored. Many have dramatically changed their politics accordingly, mostly to the right, and this can breed revolution. The French Revolution is a good example how anarchy and disorder can change a political system overnight and then slowly drift into socialism. These days the Tea Party Movement hints of anarchy largely from the right because many of them advocate ditching the entire congress and administration and replacing them with "true conservatives" - a very unrealistic mission. 
The filibuster proof majority the Democrats enjoyed before the Massachusetts election of Scott Brown to replace Ted Kennedy was a dangerous point and was critical to eliminate in order to restore near equilibrium. Fortunately, many independents, Blue Dog and Southern Democrats realized this untenable situation and voted Republican and will hopefully again in November 2012 so we will have bought some more valuable time, at least four years, in the Congress and White House.

The American culture has been rapidly declining since the major tipping point in the 1960s when the youthful Cultural Revolution occurred. Secular Progressivism got a foothold in Universities and it spread quickly through the hippie movement where many modern activists/domestic terrorists like William Ayers, Obama's Chicago friend/advisor, and other secular progressives began their journey in the mostly secular progressive University system and are still teaching and proselytizing young minds there. Obama's mentor in college days, Frank Marshall, was an avowed Marxist and Obama's chosen professors and his Chicago preacher are all far left activists and Marxists and that is all we need to know why we have rapidly progressing past that tipping point since 2008. Vann Jones, another known Marxist activist from the sixties, was fired from Obama's cabinet after the truth was revealed. This has been a very alarming trend in Obama's administration and where many other far left activists are probably still entrenched.

We balanced that crucial tipping point with the election of Reagan for a few years but the S-P movement slowly crept along through the seventies and eighties in the universities and among the elite intellectuals largely on the East and West coast even though Reagan's Conservative Revolution and the Contract With America resulted in the downfall of Communism in the USSR. S-P trudged along in the nineties during the Clinton years and George Bush II couldn't slow it down in the new millennium much due to the distraction and cost of two wars and the anti war movement from the left. Liberal university professors are still proselytizing our students to follow in their footsteps with antiwar and anti-American traditional values propaganda and this became very evident in the last election when the younger vote came out in mass for the Democratic ticket due to massive social networking trends which older more conservative voters didn't follow. The counterculture is rearing it's ugly head again masked as the Occupy Wall Street movement in many cities. It is now apparent it is being organized by anarchists , Marxists, Acorn, unions and other leftist activist groups and now the Occupy Wall Street movement reminiscent of the sixties youth revolution, now trying to further their agenda and maintain the push to European Socialism and chaos. Many of the participants are disgruntled people out of work and they have a legitimate beef, but this is not working - only making business and property owners angry about destruction of property, disruption of business and is some cases violence and destruction of property. Reporters will no longer venture into the camps for fear of the overwhelming stench and possible disease. The police have every right to clean them out for public health and safety reasons. In Europe it has evolved into anarchy with typical destruction and violence and Greece is in total revolution, a far cry from the ideal democracy in the Golden Age after 2,000 years of political decline/disorder and establishment of the extreme nanny state overburdening taxpayers and businesses with unrealistic near Utopian entitlements and government control. Does that scenario sound familiar in the USA in the new millennium?

Another reason I believe we are at another critical tipping point now is evidenced on the secular/religious side by the S-Ps and atheists winning court cases involving controversial church/state issues with the help of the ACLU and on the political side the election of a progressive president and our current political culture war between left and right in congress and as evidenced by movements like the Tea Party Group, the Occupy Wall Street groups. if the S-Ps succeed and keep the current administration in power for four more years it may be too late and entropy/disorder will prevail and we will be beyond the tipping point forever. The result will be a European socialistic economy and culture sooner than we anticipated. There will be a point where conservatives and traditionalists will lose the culture war but they may well prevail assuming the Massachusetts bombshell election was a sign and the November 2012 elections will shift the system back to near equilibrium for at least four years. Beyond that we Conservatives must continue to try and reverse the inevitable entropic tendency toward cultural and political disorder .

As my friend and staunch conservative Robin Hood Brains says " We must at all costs slow the trend to Socialism for at least for a hundred years and I know we can do that when everyone realizes how serious it is. Children in public schools have been denied traditional American History and even celebration of Christmas due to Political Correctness policies in schools and we must reeducate children how important traditional values and American History is and how we must not repeat the mistakes of the past." We all must realize cultural/political disorder then subsequent progression to Socialism is inevitable according to the Second law, so each generation has the responsibility to fight to the death to maintain the equilibrium as much as is possible for the sake of that generation of children. There is no Marxist Utopia as the starry eyed idealistic college students believe and their S-P professors preach about, only a slow decline to a new updated version of modern Amsterdam/Holland in the next 25-50 years.

We ultimately must maintain the traditional American Dream for our children as long as we can and avoid our European Progressive Worst Nightmare. I can recall when Elvis Presley, Rock and Roll, the Bop dance and Marilyn Monroe's movies and escapades on the big screen were considered too shocking for children. I don't think most of us want our great grandchildren going to a future Northpark /Dallas mall with brothels, porn /sex shops, hash bars, and a medical pot shop! The traditional conservatives in old Holland didn't think it would ever happen there, but it did and Amsterdam is in dire straits!

Contributor: Ashley, Kenneth, Ph.D., National Labs, Los Alamos

O’Reilly, Bill, Culture Warrior, Broadway Books, New York, 2006

Mencius Moldbug, on Blogspot

Rifkin, Jeremy. Entropy, A New World View. The Viking Press/New York, 1980

revised August 2015

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